The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its June passenger demand figures showing year-on-year global growth of 6.0%. Africa saw a growth of 11.2% with African airlines benefiting from strong domestic economic growth in key markets such as Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. While global air freight demand figures showed a 1.2% year-on-year expansion, Africa's figures showed growth in June of 2.4% on June 2012. |
| June & July 2013 Pax Figures © AFRAA |
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| © IATA |
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| © IATA |
Passenger Trend
In its release, IATA said global growth, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), is ahead of the 4.8% demand growth reported over the first six months of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. It is also ahead of the 5.6% expansion in capacity for June over the previous year. This pushed the passenger load factor to 81.7%.
While the strong growth trend was reflected in all regions it should be noted that Asia-Pacific airlines were responsible for half of the increase in RPKs from May to June. Due to the volatility of Asia-Pacific performance it is too early to say if this acceleration marks a trend for the rest of the year.
European airlines were another highlight of the month. They reported a second consecutive month of solid growth (4.8%) reflecting an easing in recessionary conditions in the Eurozone and an improvement in business and consumer confidence. And emerging markets were once again the strongest performers, particularly Africa (10.8%) and the Middle East (11.0%).
While the strong growth trend was reflected in all regions it should be noted that Asia-Pacific airlines were responsible for half of the increase in RPKs from May to June. Due to the volatility of Asia-Pacific performance it is too early to say if this acceleration marks a trend for the rest of the year.
European airlines were another highlight of the month. They reported a second consecutive month of solid growth (4.8%) reflecting an easing in recessionary conditions in the Eurozone and an improvement in business and consumer confidence. And emerging markets were once again the strongest performers, particularly Africa (10.8%) and the Middle East (11.0%).
“June was a positive month for passenger markets. The stability in the Eurozone, albeit tentative, is giving a boost to business and consumer confidence. And the load factor at 81.7% shows that airlines are efficiently meeting increasing demand for travel. But there are some headwinds. Growth in the BRICS economies, including China, is slowing. And oil prices remain high. The industry is still on track to make $4.00 per passenger this year for a global net profit of $12.7 billion. But there is little margin for error and even a small change in the second half of the year could shift the outlook significantly,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
African airlines benefitted from strong domestic economic growth in key markets such as Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, to post growth of 11.2%. Although African airlines’ load factors (70.7%) still lag the global average by around ten percentage points, they have made consistent progress to close the gap this year, and in June, improved their load factor by almost three percentage points compared to June 2012.
Cargo & Freight Trends
IATA's June figures show a 1.2% year-on-year expansion in global air freight demand. Although weak, this is an improvement when compared to the 0.9% year-on-year demand growth recorded in May and the 0.1% growth realized over the first half of the year.
While previously the global economic trend has been defined by robust emerging economies and stagnant growth in developed markets, the strongest improvements in business confidence are now occurring in some developed economies. Nevertheless, overall business confidence, which is a key indicator for air freight, continues to be weak.
From May to June, global freight volumes increased by 0.8%. A quarter of that improvement was captured by European airlines which saw a 0.9% improvement in demand compared to May, and 2.6% up compared to June 2012. In contrast, Asia-Pacific carriers (the biggest players in global air freight) and North American airlines recorded year-on-year declines of 1.8% and 1.2% respectively.
While previously the global economic trend has been defined by robust emerging economies and stagnant growth in developed markets, the strongest improvements in business confidence are now occurring in some developed economies. Nevertheless, overall business confidence, which is a key indicator for air freight, continues to be weak.
From May to June, global freight volumes increased by 0.8%. A quarter of that improvement was captured by European airlines which saw a 0.9% improvement in demand compared to May, and 2.6% up compared to June 2012. In contrast, Asia-Pacific carriers (the biggest players in global air freight) and North American airlines recorded year-on-year declines of 1.8% and 1.2% respectively.
“It’s too early to tell if June was a positive turning point after 18 months of stagnation. Air freight volumes are at their highest since mid-2011, but that good news needs to be tempered with a dose of reality. The global economic environment remains weak, and the basis for the acceleration of air cargo growth in June appears to be fragile,” said Tony Tyler.
African airlines recorded relatively slower growth in June, up 2.4% on June 2012. This lags the year to date trend of 4.3%, which is the second best of all regions. With economic growth in some key African markets looking strong, demand for high-value light weight consumer goods should rise, helping air freight volumes in the months to come.
Download the full June 2013 Global Passenger Traffic Report here.
Download the full June 2013 Global Cargo Traffic Report here.
